What happens to the Republican Party if Trump loses the Presidential election in November? Would the MAGA movement continue to dominate the GOP? In defeat, would Trump somehow manage to extend his reign as the commanding figure among American conservatives? Or would the shock of yet another loss to a deeply flawed and consistently unpopular opponent push the Republicans to seek fresh themes and new faces and to begin a much-needed process of rebuilding?

These questions are pressing and pertinent, even for those true believers who feel confident about the next eight months and look forward to Trumpian triumph in the contest ahead. With all his legal challenges, personality quirks and self-destructive obsessions, Trump may not be capable of leading the sort of unstoppable juggernaut his followers expect, but they also know that Biden is qualified in his own right to stumble his way toward embarrassing defeat.

Even if the elderly incumbent does manage to prevail (as presidential incumbents usually do), no one on either side of the battle expects Trump to graciously and patriotically acknowledge his own defeat. During these earliest stages of the general election battle, Trump has already painstakingly prepared the faithful for another contested result. If he could convince a majority of Republicans to buy the notion of a “stolen election” in 2020, when Biden won the popular vote by a margin of 7 million, he can certainly sow similar doubts in 2024 when a Democratic victory, if any, may be much less decisive.

Whether or not the Trump team develops evidence of massive fraud and a rigged election, they will develop charges to that effect, ensuring their Orange-Locked Leader of the one thing he craves more passionately than another turn at the White House: his continued status as the center of national attention in politics, media, and culture. Consider the Oscar ceremony last Sunday night, when the former president couldn’t allow the movie industry, Barbie and the ghost of J. Robert Oppenheimer to upstage him for even a few tinselly, televised hours.

Resistance to the election results would keep Trump in the spotlight, certainly, but there’s no reason to expect that mass demonstrations and lawsuits or even street-fighting would work out any better than the efforts of four years ago. How many among the tens of thousands who gathered in Washington (“It’s going to be wild!” their idol promised) would want to sign on for a return trip and to fight the National Guard who would be prepared, and present, this time around?

Another factor that would work against Trump’s continued leadership of the GOP during a second term of Biden and Harris, involves a power shift in DC that looks all but inevitable after November. The odds are overwhelming that whatever the final count in the electoral college, the Democrats will lose their one-vote control of the United States Senate. The Republicans need to win only two seats, with four or five states—West Virginia, Montana, Arizona, Nevada, Ohio and perhaps others—prepared to tilt in their direction. Currently, no Republican incumbent faces a formidable Democratic challenger so the new Senate Majority leader will be either John Thune of South Dakota or John Cornyn of Texas, depending on who tops out their current competition.

In any event, Senate control will give the Republican Party a power base in Washington that provides an important alternative to far-away Mar-a-Lago. And both of “the Johns” (Thune and Cornyn) are mainstream, pragmatic conservatives who have never been particularly committed to kissing Trump’s ring, as the saying goes. It’s hard to imagine that any figure among the MAGA Minyans would be able to compete with a new Senate Majority leader as a prominent, empowered voice for the survivors in the Republican Party.

And what about the former President who, if he loses this election, will surely spend the next four years (or more) grousing about it? He will also very probably begin laying plans for yet another White House bid in 2028. Too old, you say? Trump would insist that he would be only 81 at the time of that next battle, or the same age as Biden has reached today. And as a self-proclaimed “magnificent physical challenge” he would relish the chance to duel any representative of a younger generation in cognitive testing (he’ll “ace it” since nobody beats Trump in recognizing drawings of whales) or on the golf course (especially if he owns the course).

But rather than worrying about a fourth Trump nomination in 2028, most Americans are still deeply concerned about the Trump/Biden nightmare of 2024. Yes, it is easily possible that the dreams of a Messianic resurrection will prove unattainable by the MAGA Man, but that won’t mean his immediate disappearance from the political scene or the instant collapse of his movement. But it should bring about a decisive reduction in his influence and more space for new alternatives to make the Grand Old Party more Grand—and maybe less Old.